Selection and mating considering expected inbreeding of future progeny.

Animals most related or least related to current members of their breed were revealed by calculating the expected inbreeding of their future progeny. A sample of potential mates was chosen by randomly selecting 600 females from a recent birth year (1995). Relationships among the sample were computed by the tabular method. Relationships of other animals to the sample population were computed quickly from the relationships of their parents or ancestors. To-Mar Blackstar-ET and Round Oak Rag Apple Elevation were most related to the Holstein breed with expected inbreeding of 7.9 and 7.7%, respectively. Corresponding Jersey bulls were Highland Magic Duncan and Soldierboy Boomer Sooner of CJF with expected inbreeding of 10.9 and 9.5%, respectively. The highest expected inbreeding was 11.1% for Selwood Bettys Commander, 8.6% for Forest Lawn Simon Jetway, 10.1% for Dutch Mill Telestars Fayette, and 7.4% for Korncrest Pacesetter for Ayrshire, Brown Swiss, Guernsey, and Milking Shorthorn breeds, respectively. Regression on inbreeding in the genetic evaluation model removed effects of past inbreeding. Future inbreeding effects could be included for each potential mating or by adjusting breeding values for average inbreeding expected with random mating. The correlation between Holstein breeding values unadjusted and adjusted for inbreeding was 0.9976. The estimated genetic trend was 6% lower with future inbreeding included.